Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 0.030108 0.034254 0.038782 0.044099 0.050177 0.056911 0.064947
2025-02-09 0.024153 0.029922 0.036796 0.045606 0.056623 0.069977 0.087441
2025-02-16 0.020222 0.026522 0.034480 0.045302 0.059686 0.078222 0.104038
2025-02-23 0.017669 0.024277 0.033033 0.045532 0.063003 0.086684 0.121438
2025-03-02 0.015455 0.022099 0.031269 0.044919 0.064847 0.093070 0.136417
2025-03-09 0.014136 0.020952 0.030713 0.045803 0.068718 0.102492 0.156564
2025-03-16 0.012690 0.019424 0.029393 0.045340 0.070433 0.108778 0.172531
2025-03-23 0.011936 0.018832 0.029364 0.046764 0.075084 0.119868 0.197050
2025-03-30 0.010638 0.017248 0.027631 0.045289 0.074919 0.123252 0.209314
2025-04-06 0.009697 0.016132 0.026514 0.044664 0.076015 0.128692 0.225458
2025-04-13 0.008671 0.014773 0.024863 0.042961 0.075074 0.130542 0.235444
2025-04-20 0.008329 0.014535 0.025054 0.044412 0.079712 0.142407 0.264529
2025-04-27 0.007996 0.014294 0.025238 0.045911 0.084657 0.155443 0.297519
2025-05-04 0.007677 0.014049 0.025395 0.047377 0.089700 0.169186 0.333486
2025-05-11 0.007134 0.013342 0.024645 0.047068 0.091329 0.176619 0.357817
2025-05-18 0.006719 0.012833 0.024212 0.047307 0.094020 0.186327 0.387775
2025-05-25 0.006234 0.012145 0.023375 0.046669 0.094884 0.192460 0.410912
2025-06-01 0.005976 0.011878 0.023324 0.047589 0.098996 0.205566 0.450398
2025-06-08 0.005585 0.011307 0.022623 0.047106 0.100118 0.212523 0.477105
2025-06-15 0.005430 0.011205 0.022853 0.048589 0.105572 0.229236 0.527699
2025-06-22 0.004989 0.010471 0.021724 0.047054 0.104268 0.231034 0.543909
2025-06-29 0.004670 0.009966 0.021031 0.046404 0.104865 0.237105 0.570880
2025-07-06 0.004278 0.009273 0.019881 0.044631 0.102729 0.236718 0.582086